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Apart from “Oppenheimer,” no other 2023 film generated as much excitement and prestige prior to its release as the epic Western crime drama “Killers of the Flower Moon.” Directed by Martin Scorsese and featuring a stellar cast led by Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro, this movie was widely regarded as a strong Academy Award contender, if not the frontrunner for Oscars, before it even hit theaters.
In reality, the overwhelmingly positive response from both audiences and critics to “Killers of the Flower Moon” has more than justified the excessive level of prestige associated with the film’s theatrical debut. Similar to “Oppenheimer,” “Killers of the Flower Moon” is a complex and intricate period piece that delves deeply into its captivating real-life subject, which in this case is the gruesome Osage Nation murders of the 1920s.
However, it’s worth noting that the film’s exceptional critical reception has somewhat overshadowed the fact that “Killers of the Flower Moon” has struggled at the box office, especially considering its reported production cost of $200 million, which is roughly double that of “Oppenheimer.”
After its second weekend in theaters, “Killers of the Flower Moon,” which was distributed by Paramount Pictures but financed by Apple Original Films through the Apple TV+ streaming service, faces challenges in gaining the commercial traction necessary to approach profitability during its theatrical run.
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A Slow Box Office Burn
During its opening weekend, “Killers of the Flower Moon” was expected to make between $20 million and $25 million at the domestic box office but ended up earning around $23.2 million, securing the second-place spot for the weekend, falling short by about $10 million compared to the concert film “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour.”
The $23.2 million in domestic opening weekend earnings was on par with previous movies featuring Leonardo DiCaprio and directed by Martin Scorsese. Additionally, it surpassed the 1991 psychological thriller “Cape Fear” as the best opening weekend for a film directed by Martin Scorsese and starring Robert De Niro.
“Killers of the Flower Moon” had aspirations for significant success at the Oscars, and it was anticipated to rely on word-of-mouth promotion to maintain steady audience interest, including through its Apple TV+ release, until January 23, 2024, when the 2024 Oscar nominations would be announced. However, based on its current performance at the domestic box office, it appears unlikely that this plan will come to fruition.
In its second weekend of release in the United States, the film experienced a substantial drop, with a 61% decrease from its opening weekend. It earned approximately $9 million in its second weekend, resulting in a cumulative domestic total of around $40.6 million.
Forget Barbenheimer
While “Killers of the Flower Moon” and “Oppenheimer” share similarities in their grand scale, lengthy runtimes, and technical excellence, the former, with its nearly three-and-a-half-hour duration (roughly 25 minutes longer than “Oppenheimer”), has significantly underperformed at the box office compared to the latter, both domestically and internationally.
During its opening weekend, “Oppenheimer” raked in approximately $82.4 million in the United States and $98 million overseas, resulting in a remarkable global opening weekend gross of around $180.4 million. In contrast, “Killers of the Flower Moon” earned approximately $21 million in its overseas box office debut and currently boasts a total overseas gross of approximately $47.4 million, resulting in a current worldwide gross of approximately $88 million. “Oppenheimer” concluded its theatrical run with a domestic gross of $324.1 million and an overseas total exceeding $624 million, resulting in a worldwide total of over $945 million.
It’s important to note that the box office success of “Oppenheimer” was greatly aided by the simultaneous release of the blockbuster comedy film “Barbie,” which became the highest-grossing film of 2023. However, “Killers of the Flower Moon” did not benefit from a similar phenomenon like “Barbenheimer.”
There is no available data to indicate that a significant portion of the audience that attended the concert film “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” also chose to watch “Killers of the Flower Moon.” Despite receiving a favorable audience score, the film’s viewership has increasingly skewed toward male viewers.
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The Big Picture
If Paramount Pictures had financed “Killers of the Flower Moon” instead of Apple, the movie would likely be on track to be one of the biggest box office failures in recent history. Given the film’s reported $200 million production budget and assuming a modest marketing cost of $100 million, the movie would need to earn at least $600 million globally just to break even from its theatrical release. However, based on its current box office performance, “Killers of the Flower Moon” is far from reaching this break-even point.
For Apple, though, the film serves as a promotional tool and a marketing expense. It helps attract people to the Apple ecosystem, specifically their streaming service, Apple TV+, where the movie will likely be available for viewing after its exclusive theatrical release.
Looking at it this way, if the movie’s final box office earnings surpass its marketing expenses, it is likely to be considered a success by Apple, especially if it receives critical acclaim, such as winning Oscars, according to industry experts.
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